Buy Backs and Energy Boom in September of 2026

 

It was a good week for Canada as Prime Minster Carney presented investment opportunities to international and national investors bringing in near $500 billion with a target of 1 trillion. The big banks of Canada have announced millions in funding as well as our own CPP investment board. 

In Atlantic Canada, defence and infrastructure projects where billions are earmarked with a recent article highlighting an estimated workforce of nearly two thirds more would be needed than the current workforce. With the housing shortage that will be a challenge to attract people as rent and housing prices continue to increase since the Covid years at a pace with major cities like Toronto.

Oil and shipping continues to be the talk where there is no end in sight for the Iran conflict with Saudi Arabia getting more involved as their oil supply routes get disrupted temporarily.

With oil prices over and under $100 a barrel these days, Western Canada oil and gas companies are enjoying extra profits for now. Using Suncor stock as a measure, SU was just just shy of a $100 CAD a few days ago.

Buy backs can be a bonus for investors where companies buy back and cancel their stock with a goal to increase the price of the stock pleasing investors and if paying dividends, reduce their distributable cash payment percentage for the company among other factors or use those funds for capital expansion/upgrades.

In a recent update, Gibson Energy, GEI.TSX intends to buy back and cancel 5% of their shares amounting to over 7.25 million shares over a 12 month period. That "could" be a positive move for current holders as mentioned above so I decided to buy more GEI along with the current yield being attractive.  

The Globe and Mail publishes articles on company stats and buybacks with a recent article from Norman Rothery.

Buybacks, or share repurchases, offer companies an alternate way to return money to shareholders other than paying dividends. Companies that buy their own shares (or pay dividends) are usually profitable and, hopefully, have an excess of cash to deploy, which can make them good investments.

Personally, I find the Energy sector most interesting of all the sectors where I keep up on news and updates of what's going on with the companies I hold. 

Energy investment boom

BMO analyst Ben Pham outlined the potential winners from an expected boom in domestic oil and gas investment,

“We believe the development of large scale oil pipeline projects in Western Canada is shaping up as a major investment opportunity for Canadian energy infrastructure companies. Rising oil production, favourable macro and political backdrop, higher commodity prices and tight pipe capacity are the key drivers. Fortunately, there are 2.5M bbl/d of proposals in various stages of development just in the nick of time, though it is unlikely that all will be built and/or built on time. Companies that are participating directly include SOBO (’market perform’), PPL (Mkt), and ENB (’outperform’) with proposed oil infrastructure projects. We also flag ALA (OP), KEY (OP) and PPL (Mkt) for follow-on NGLs/ condensate/exports requirements, GEI (Mkt) for oil storage, ACO.X (OP)/CU (Mkt) for regulated ‘wires’ and CPX/TA (both OP) for power generation”

I don't own ALA, CU or TA at this time but Canadian Utilities, CU.TSX stock has awakened from a slumber since February of 2025 gaining 44% and it's perked my interest after holding it in the past and sold. CU is a Dividend Aristocrat with over 50 years of dividend growth. Noting that the yearly dividend increases has slowed to 1% from an average of 10% after 2018. One of the reasons I sold but with the capital gain added in, makes CU more interesting.

South Bow Corporation, SOBO.TSX is on my list to further buy before the ex-dividend date of September 29th and Capital Power, CPX.TSX. 

The inception date for RCDC, RBC Canadian Dividend Covered Call ETF was January 2023 and I began buying the ETF at that time to boost monthly distribution from companies I own individually along with railroads such as CP in the current top 10 holdings.

The ETF has 79.37 million in assets so far. Total return is around 24.5% for the past year. 

The US banking giant JP Morgan is expanding in Canada and I've been buying their Canadian version of JEPQ with NASDAQ holdings and an attractive but fluctuating yield. They recently added a CAD hedged version of JEPQ to their ETF lineup, JPQH with monthly distributions being paid usually on the 8th day of a month.

September has been historically a flat month for stocks returns with sector exceptions depending on what's going on with the economy and politically these days. For example the surge of interest in gold miners this year.

I've read and agree, it's probably a good time to keep some cash in reserve for buying at lower stock prices however I don't wait around to time the markets. Rarely works with all the moving parts such as inflation, oil prices and supply, political agendas, tariffs, etc.

For October, I see banks and related ETFs on my ex-dividend calendar. Banks are more expensive in 2026 reporting earnings investors like to see as price to earnings levels are higher than normal. There are dozens of ETF options out there and growing to receive monthly payments with banks in the holdings.

  

Staying on Course in September 2026

I read Morningstar's monthly newsletters on stocks and ETFs that outperform in a given month and look over monthly stock lists with adds and deletes from top investor professionals in the banks, etc. where I'm looking for total return, not just dividends.

It's easy to get swayed to change course and buy the top performers but after a 30% gain for example, how much more upside is there and will I be buying at overvalued prices. Most likely where investors want to see increasingly better quarterly or yearly reports going forward. Something like the top tech chip companies in the US which are in the news daily and that tech bubble talk. 

Reminds me of the book I read by Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money.

I generally prefer low volatility and have the energy sector on my mind for September. Pipelines, oil and natural gas along with storage. 

Canadian Natural Resources, CNQ.TSX starts off my September dividend calendar being one of Canada's largest energy producers with a Market Cap of 144 billion, a dividend payout ratio of around 60% and a current yield of 3.50%,with YTD gains of 50%. being a Dividend Achiever with 24 years, Sept 11th is the ex-dividend date.

Suited for long term investors and focused on quality dividend paying Canadian stocks, I check regularly for the latest posts from Tom Connolly's DividendGrowth.ca for subscribers. 

This month, a spreadsheet for 23 popular stocks highlights dividend growth and price for the last 10 years, 2016 to 2026. I save and print these for reference. CNQ is at the top of the list with a price of $14 in 2016 and Sept's 2026 price of $68. Current price of $69.78. Dividend growth with a multiple of 19.7 averaged out at 9.60%.

One of those stocks I believe to be a core sector holding in a diversified portfolio. 

I hold most of these stocks in this sector spread from Dale in a recent Cut The Crap Investing article:

I should of bought CNR when the price was down earlier in the fall of 2025 at around $128 and has rallied since March of this year but I currently don't own a railroad, only in an ETF where the yield is low but there is yield growth potential I'll decide on.

Mid Month, being the 15th of September, I plan to further buy Pembina Pipeline, PPL.TSX before the ex-date. With the pipelines, I hold Enbridge, Pembina Pipeline, South Bow and Keyera with a network of pipelines. Usually 4 to 5 stocks for a sector like the Big Banks of Canada.

Mainly on the storage of natural gas, Rockpoint Gas Storage I bought back in June of this year with a current yield of 5% which is attractive and the minimum yield some dividend investors seek. However I'm being patient as the stock price has headed south recently although the recent quarterly report is decent. The company started paying dividends in USD in December of 2025. 

RGSI.TSX operating for 38 years, is also heavy into California, headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and with pipeline projects in the works to pump natural gas to California ports, etc., storage will be needed. 

In the last half of September with Halloween and Christmas decorations already out in the shops, I'll be eyeing more pipeline and power stocks plus the ETFs I continue to buy on a monthly basis.