The Global Trade Shift in Mid April, 2025

 

In May, earnings reports for several of the stocks I own will be available for scrutinising and I'll look for any forward guidance but with the US tariffs and unpredictability, I don't expect much in the way of guidance except for those not directly affected by the tariffs.

Canada's newly elected Prime Minister will be in office in May and see what comes of trade talks with the US. 

With politics weighing more than usual on the North American stock markets, I look at the economy as well and what's happening internationally in relation to us here in Canada.

China, one of the largest oil importers in the world is shifting from the US and buying more oil from Canada. A bright spot in the crazy international tariff war going on. 

I own several oil, natural gas and pipeline related stocks based in western Canada. I'm sure they welcome the increased export to China and other Asian countries as natural gas shipments will ramp up as well with projects like the LNG Canada, Kitimat Natural Gas Facility in BC coming online in mid 2025.

Enbridge, ENB.TO comes to mind with their pipelines and oil/natural gas storage/shipping faculties. Companies like Canadian Natural Resources, CNQ.TO, Suncor, SU.TO and Tourmaline Oil, TOU.TO.

Enbridge and Fortis, FTS.TO are companies I'll be looking at in mid May for further buying. FortisBC and Enbridge have a partnership with Natural Gas storage and shipping in BC. 

I bought into Royal Bank's RCDC, RBC Canadian Dividend Covered Call ETF soon after it launched in January of 2023 and although the MER of 0.71% is high, I hold it for the cash distributions and not for growth although it had a return of 16.9% in 2024 so can't complain. 

This year it dipped with the US tariff barrage on Canada but has come back up to the $20 CAD range with a current yield of 7.39%.

I like the top ten holdings by weight with Royal Bank, TD Bank and Enbridge at the top with a mix of sectors included.

The ex-dividend date for RCDC is April 23rd and I plan on further buying into that ETF. I look at as an affordable option than buying some of the big banks of Canada although I hold them all with the exception of National Bank with plans to buy that stock this year.

Meanwhile the TSX performed better than the US indexes last week with a 5% gain while the long term investors such as myself slosh through the muck the US has stirred up for now with the trade and tariff.

US Tariff Showers in April, 2025

 

The US tariff bomb dropped this week causing fear and panic in the markets as expected. Canada and Mexico are not on the list for additional tariff for now as Canada waits for the 28th of April and the Federal Elections followed by negotiations with the US over trade, defence, etc. Hopefully some satisfactory agreements can be reached during these future talks

No changes on my end with my portfolio as I look for some bargain prices with the current 27 stocks I own and accumulate for the long term harvesting cash dividends.

April is yet again what I call a Bank Month compared to multiple sectors stocks I bought in March. 

For example, I watched TD Bank stock, TD.TO fall back to the low 80's in price on the 3rd of April and bought where the bank has an ex-dividend date of April 10th, 2025 with a 5% yield. Eventually, TD's stock price will rise again after the markets absorb the fallout from the ongoing tariff war or it may fall even further in the short term. There's no timing the markets only a personal liking for buy and sell entry points.

           March 31, 2025                                           TD.TO                                              April 4,2025

Mid month, I'll be looking at the end of April where there are ex-dividend dates for the Bank of Montreal, BMO.TO, which is currently overvalued by the Graham Number and the Royal Bank, RY.TO which is the more favoured bank with the current tariff climate going on. I plan to buy more of the bank ETF; BMO's ZWB as well for the monthly distributions.

I'm overweight on my EMA.TO, Emera Incorporated in my portfolio but will keep buying before the ex-dividend date, the 30th of April. The utility is currently concentrating on capital gains to offset lower dividend hikes for now

Looking back to 2024, the US S&P 500 was and still is, top heavy with Techs and the AI buildup while here in Canada I personally concentrate on financials with banks/insurers, energy/pipelines and utilities as my top holdings paying decent yields with many of these stocks doing business in the US. 

In the later part of 2024, JP Morgan listed their first 2 interesting ETFs for Canadian investors, JEPI.TO and JEPQ.TO with the latter concentrating on Nasdaq and the top tech companies in the US so I got more exposure to the US market that route while collecting the varying monthly distributions.

Meanwhile, it's wait for an eventual end to the tariff war brought on by the US government and stay invested but like any stock or ETF I own ... if it's causing me to rethink it steady with issues like too much debt or poor management causing possible dividend reductions, it's wise to sell it and buy into the many other stock opportunities out there and on my Watch list that I expect to be a worthy pick.